000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280857
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 01N79W TO 04N88W TO 03N104W TO 03N133W TO 
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 75 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 06N86W TO 03N101W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N120W 
TO 20N137W. A BAND OF UPPER DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N105W TO 28N120W THEN WIDENS OVER THE ARE 
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 120W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 
13N116W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE W TO A SHARP CREST AT 10N135W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 124W AND 140W WITH 
THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE CONCENTRATING INTO A PLUME WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 12N131W TO 26N112W TO 31N90W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 124W AND 100W REMAINS IN THE ITCZ.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS BARELY EVIDENT ALONG 25N95W 05N102W. 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 85W IS 
STREAMING NE IN RESPONSE TO A TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE LYING E TO W 
ALONG 09N E OF 95W. OTHERWISE THE TROPICS ARE DRY ALOFT N OF THE 
ITCZ E OF 118W.
    
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS AT 30N120W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 
12N103W. EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 20 KT RANGE WITH 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. NW WINDS E OF THE RIDGE TO THE W 
COAST THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND 25-35 KT N 
OF 30N. SEAS MAXING ABOUT 13 FT ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT S ALLOWING A FRONTAL TROUGH TO SLOWLY DIP 
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

GAP WINDS...EASTERLY SURGES TO 2O KT EXPECTED IN AND DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON