000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N84W 6N92W 3N101W 5N112W 5N120W
5N130W 2N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-92.5W...AND ALSO WITHIN 
30 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 108W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN ARIZONA SW THROUGH
28N123W TO 26N130W TO 24N134W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING TO 
THE N OF THE TROUGH. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT TO 
THE SE OF THE TROUGH WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 11N121W. 
ITCZ CONVECTION TO S OF THE RIDGE REMAINS ACTIVE PRIMARILY 
BETWEEN 105W-115W WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE IS OBSERVED. THIS 
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE
....A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N131W WILL MOVE SW TO JUST
OF THE AREA IN HE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NLY 
FLOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...AS WELL AS FRESH ELY TRADES TO THE 
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE 
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND MOVING TO THE W A LITTLE IN 
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. NW SWELL UP TO 9 FT OUTSIDE
THE TRADE WIND AREAS WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HRS.

E OF 105W...UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME RATHER ZONAL N OF 10N AS BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT. FURTHER 
SOUTH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF A STATIONARY UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 8N105W IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 86W-93W. AT THE 
SURFACE...A RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM NEAR 2330 UTC THIS EVENING SHOWED NE WINDS TO 20 KT 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS
WILL BE UP AND DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$
AGUIRRE