000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU MAR 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 7N84W 5N90W 2N102W 5N112W 3N121W 5N128W 2N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-128W...AND ALSO N OF THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N135W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 105W... SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN ARIZONA SW THROUGH 28N123W TO 26N130W TO 25N138W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING TO THE W AND NW OF THE TROUGH. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 11N121W. ITCZ CONVECTION TO S OF THE RIDGE REMAINS ACTIVE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 105W-115W WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE IS OBSERVED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N129W WILL MOVE SW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NLY FLOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...AS WELL AS FRESH ELY TRADES TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND MOVING TO THE W A LITTLE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE CONVERGING NW AND SW SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. E OF 105W...UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING MORE ZONAL N OF 10N AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF A STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 8N103W IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 86W-93W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR 20-25 KT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT IN 24 HRS...AND GOING TO 48 HRS. SW SWELL IMPACTING THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS WILL DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE