000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 7N84W 2N100W 5N111W 3N123W 3N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF 7N84.5W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 180-240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 
130W...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN ARIZONA WWD THROUGH
30N120W TO A CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N129W MOVING 
SLOWLY EWD. THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN 
TROUGH WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED N OF 22N W OF 128W. SHEARED 
TROUGH CAPS A RATHER FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 120W.  
AN ONGOING DEFORMATION AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS 
ALONG 10N IS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AT LEAST 
THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 
37N130W WILL BUILD SWD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL 
MAINTAIN FRESH NLY FLOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...AS WELL AS 
FRESH ELY TRADES TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND 
MOVING TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
DIGGING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE 
CONVERGING NW AND SW SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

E OF 115W...UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING MORE ZONAL N OF 10N AS BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT. FURTHER 
SOUTH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF A STATIONARY UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 8N93W IS ENHANCING POCKETS OF 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W AND 93W...AND IN THE 
VICINITY OF A TRANSIENT 1008 MB LOW NEAR 7N84W. AT THE 
SURFACE...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EWD. THIS IS ALLOWING GAP WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY...THOUGH A 
1236 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20-25 
KT. WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SW SWELL PUSHING INTO 
THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINES IS DECAYING AS WELL 
INTO THE WEEKEND. 

$$
COBB