000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270954 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU MAR 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 5N87W 3N100W 5N117W 5N134W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W TO 89W...AND BETWEEN 93W TO 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN 115W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W...UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING MORE ZONAL N OF 10N AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EWD. THIS IS ALLOWING GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH TODAY. WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SW SWELL PUSHING INTO THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINES IS DECAYING AS WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. FURTHER SOUTH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF A STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 8N93W IS ENHANCING POCKETS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. W OF 115W...CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N130W MOVING SLOWLY EWD. THIS WILL LIKELY AND OPEN UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N134W WILL BUILD SE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NLY FLOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...AS WELL AS FRESH ELY TRADES TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND WALLOWING TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE CONVERGING NW AND SW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ONGOING DEFORMATION AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10N IS AIDING CONTINUING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBE ABOVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. $$ CHRISTENSEN