000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N80W 5N86W 4N101W  6N125W 3N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 85W-102W 
AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N125W TO 22N140W SLOWLY 
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF VORTEX NEAR 27N131W AGAINST GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATIONS.  MODELS HAVE WLY FLOW FLATTENING TO ZONAL WITHIN 
NEXT 36 HRS.  THE OUTCOME OF BOTH SCENARIOS SEEM COMPLETELY 
OPPOSITE AS VORTEX WOULD INDUCE AMPLE DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH RIDGE 
DOWNSTREAM WHILE ZONAL FLOW WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION AND 
INDICATE TROUGH IS N OF AREA.  THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR 
DEVELOPING VORTEX TO BE FORCED NE BY DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND RIDGE 
TAKE OVER ENTIRE REGION W OF ITS AXIS NOW ALONG 110W.  

OTHERWISE...FLOW S OF 20N COMPLETELY UNDER INFLUENCE OF BROAD 
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER CARIBBEAN SEA IN 
THE EAST TO ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 9N92W AND ANOTHER AT 11N111W.  
WESTERLY FLOW VERY DRY AND STEADY FROM 10N-20N WITH EXCEPTION OF 
WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG 20N BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES AND 
ANOTHER ALONG 105W FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN TWO EASTERNMOST CENTERS.  
CONVECTION DEBRIS NEAR 120W ADVECTED NE BY 65 KT JET CORE ALONG 
DEFORMATION ZONE. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1033 MB AT 34N138W EXTEND SURFACE 
RIDGE TO 12N103W MAINTAINING NE TRADES W OF 120W AND FRESH N 
FLOW ALONG W BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  

SELY RETURN FLOW OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD RID OF ALL NLY FLOW 
OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.  

LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA 1007 MB SQUEEZES GRADIENT WITH STATIONARY 
FRONT ACROSS WRN CARIBBEAN INCREASING FLOW THAT SPILLS OVER 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA.  LOW INTENSIFIES BUT FRONT BECOMES 
DIFFUSE AND GRADIENT RELAXES AFTER 18-24 HRS. ELY SWELL FROM 
BOTH GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO CLASHING AGAINST SW CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELL CREATING CONFUSED SEAS FROM 85-95W N OF 5N. 

$$
WALLY BARNES