000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 3N100W 6N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 107W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF AXIS W OF 
125W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 
107W...AND BETWEEN 110W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...QUIKSCAT DATA HAS BEEN OUT SINCE 0800 UTC BUT BASED 
ON LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES OVER MEXICO AND SELY RETURN FLOW 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WINDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED 
BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. THE
EDGE OF A 0940 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT 
TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ELY TRADES 
INCREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. NELY SWELL FROM BOTH TEHUANTEPEC 
AND PAPAGAYO IS COMBINING WITH SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL TO 
CREATE AREAS OF CONFUSED SEAS GENERALLY 85-95W N OF 5N. FURTHER 
EAST...SHIP OBSERVATIONS N OF PANAMA BACKUP MODEL ANALYSIS 
HINTING OF FRESH NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. AT THE 
UPPER LEVELS UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE 
SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 7N92W IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 97W AND 107W. OTHER 
THAN ITCZ CONVECTION THE AREA WAS MARKED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. 

W OF 110W...AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 135W WITH A WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 27N135W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E 
AND DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT RIDES OVER A 
VERY BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 110W/W 
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 35N144W 
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SHIFT 
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE 
NE TO E TRADES TO THE SOUTH...AND PROMPT AN AREA OF FRESH NLY 
WINDS ALONG THE NRN BAJA COAST. MEANWHILE NW SWELL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA AND WILL COMBINE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SW SWELL GENERALLY S OF 15N. 

FURTHER S...AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 8N. 
UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ REMAIN 
UNCERTAIN. 

$$
COBB