000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 3N100W 7N122W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 112W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 35 KT FLOW WAS 
ONGOING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER LOWER SURFACE 
PRESSURE AND SELY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
ALLOWING WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOW FRESH NE 
TO E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ELY TRADES INCREASE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. NELY SWELL FROM BOTH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO IS 
COMBINING WITH SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL TO CREATE AREAS OF 
CONFUSED SEAS GENERALLY 85-95W N OF 5N. FURTHER EAST...SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS N OF PANAMA BACKUP MODEL ANALYSIS HINTING OF FRESH 
NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. ALOFT...UPPER DIVERGENCE 
ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 7N92W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

W OF 110W...AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 135W WILL GRADUALLY 
SHIFT E AND DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT 
FLATTENS OUT A VERY BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED 
OVER BAJA. 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY 
BEHIND THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THU. 
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN NE TO E TRADES TO SOUTH...AND 
PROMPT AN AREA OF FRESH NLY WINDS ALONG THE NRN BAJA COAST. 
MEANWHILE NW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA AND WILL 
COMBINE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL GENERALLY S OF 15N. 
FURTHER S...AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 8N. 
UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ REMAIN 
UNCERTAIN. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN