000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W  6N121W  3N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 85W-106W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 110W-120W 
AND W OF 135W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 9N115W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 137W BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT IN 
COMPACT 85 KT JET CORE ON ERN SIDE.  MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 
CENTER AT 7N93W HAS AXIS TILTED NW TO 32N119W LIKELY STRONG 
ENOUGH TO BLOCK ERN INTRUSION OF TROUGH DEFLECTING IT NE. 
RIDGE HAS WEAK EXTENSION TO THE W WITH SMALL ANTICYCLONE 
CIRCULATION AT 10N121W WHICH WILL BE OBLITERATED BY INCOMING 
TROUGH.  WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES HAS 
MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ 
AXIS.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 115W-120W. 

DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE IS TAIL END OF ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH 
THAT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO FORCE BROAD CARIBBEAN RIDGE OUT OF ITS 
PLACE.  THIS TROUGH FROM WRN PANAMA TO EQUATOR AT 83W FEEDS 
TRPCL MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER WRN CARIBBEAN.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE N OF 15N WEST OF 105W.

GALE FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
WITHIN 12 HRS AS PER ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE.  HIGH PRES 
FORCING WINDS TO CROSS ISTHMUS MOVES E PROMPTING SE FLOW ACROSS 
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA WINDS INCREASE AS HIGH PRES 
BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WRN CARIBBEAN TIGHTENS GRADIENT WITH 
1008 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA.

$$
WALLY BARNES