000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W  3N103W  6N120W  3N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 
95W-102W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 107W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 9N115W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 138W-139W ENTERS E PAC BRINGING IN 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT IN 85 KT JET CORE ON ERN SIDE.  MID- 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH CENTER AT 7N94W HAS AXIS TILTED NW TO 
32N117W LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOCK ERN INTRUSION OF TROUGH 
DEFLECTING IT NE.  RIDGE HAS WEAK EXTENSION TO THE W WITH SMALL 
ANTICYCLONE CIRCULATION AT 9N123W WHICH WILL OBLITERATED BY 
INCOMING TROUGH.  WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES 
HAS MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ 
AXIS.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS FROM 6N-17N BETWEEN 86W-110W. 

DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE IS TAIL END OF ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH 
THAT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO FORCE BROAD CARIBBEAN RIDGE OUT OF ITS 
PLACE.  THIS TROUGH FROM COSTA RICA TO EQUATOR AT 86W FEEDS 
TRPCL MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER WRN CARIBBEAN.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 114W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH.

GALE FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
WITHIN 24 HRS AS PER ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE.  HIGH PRES 
FORCING WINDS TO CROSS ISTHMUS IS MOVING E PROMPTING SE FLOW 
ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA WINDS INCREASE AS HIGH PRES 
BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WRN CARIBBEAN SQUEEZES PRES GRADIENT 
WITH 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA.

$$
WALLY BARNES