000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 1N85W 2N100W 6N127W 3N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
92W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
112W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION OFF THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...CENTERED NEAR 15N108W. THE HIGH IS 
BOUNDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LOCATED E/NE OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH AN EXTENSION CROSSING 140W FROM 14N140W TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 124W. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW LIES BETWEEN THE UPPER 
HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A 
LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 4N-24N BETWEEN 
110W-136W WHICH THEN TURNS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SRN BAJA 
PENINSULA. A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND A 
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH JET CORE 
SPEEDS OF 70-90 KT E OF 117W. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED 
SW OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N132W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADES W OF 120W.

FARTHER E...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA SW TO 2N98W AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING 
A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 87W-110W. 
S/SW UPPER FLOW LIES E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS DRAWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ IS SUPPRESSED WELL S ALONG 1N/2N 
E OF 105W YET HAS BECOME QUITE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LIKELY DUE TO 
ENHANCEMENT BY THE UPPER TROUGH.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE HOVERING AROUND 20 KT AND 
ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. WINDS OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 
20 KT WITHIN 24 HRS THEN SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE BY 1200 UTC MON 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 
LIKELY TO REACH BETWEEN 40-45 KT MON EVENING/NIGHT THEN DIMINISH 
A BIT...AND GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
BERG