000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 1N84W 3N87W 2N100W 3N110W 
3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N E OF 79W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 86W-90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W-114W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 121W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL AREAS OF THE E PACIFIC OCEAN ARE 
DOMINATED BY 3 MAIN FEATURES...A BROAD TROUGHING REGIME BETWEEN 
140W AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...STRONG RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF MEXICO...AND A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS FAR SE MEXICO 
AND S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MOST DOMINATING OF THE 
THREE IS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED S OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 17N111W. BROAD S/SW FLOW ALOFT LIES W OF THE 
UPPER HIGH AND IS PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE 
SUBTROPICAL REGION W OF BAJA. FAST-MOVING WESTERLIES LIE N OF 
20N WITH MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL WINDS 50-80 KT SPREADING INTO 
NORTHERN MEXICO. A STRONG 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH LIES W OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 36N132W AND IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TO ITS S WITH FRESH TRADES OCCURRING W OF 125W.

FARTHER E...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES E OF THE UPPER HIGH 
FROM 10N-24N BETWEEN 93W-115W AND HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA. A SHARP 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 2N100W AND IS 
HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N 
BETWEEN 95W-100W...PARTLY FORCED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE N OF THE ITCZ. BROAD SLY FLOW E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO DRAW DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD 
TOWARDS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ITCZ...WHICH HAPPENS TO 
BE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE S WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THE 
EQUATOR.

WINDS ACROSS THE 3 MAJOR GAPS...TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND 
PANAMA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT ARE QUICKLY 
DIMINISHING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT OVER 
TEHAUNTEPEC AND PANAMA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER PAPAGAYO BY 
SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SECOND HIGH PRES SURGE OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO AGAIN PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MON MORNING/AFTERNOON.

$$
BERG