000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...2N78W 2N110W 5N125W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 2N-5N 
BETWEEN 84W-87.5W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 112W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH JUST W OF THE AREA ALONG 143W IS MAKING LITTLE
EWD PROGRESSION AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR 12.5N112W 
REMAINS ABOUT STATIONARY. EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
STREAMING ENE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REACHING TO 126W WHERE A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AND S 
OF RIDGE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 117W-131W.

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO 
TO SE MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 10.5N100W. CONFLUENT FLOW 
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN AMPLE MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 15N E OF 115W WHERE SKIES ARE NOTED AS 
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVING W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 100W-110W. A JET 
STREAM BRANCH IS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH OVER FAR ERN 
MEXICO...AND EXTENDS NE TO ACROSS SRN GULF OF MEXICO AND E TO 
ACROSS S FL. THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS SE MEXICO...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SRN GULF 
OF MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA SE OF THE TROUGH TO NRN S AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION AT 32N129W AND STRETCHES SE TO 
23N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 112W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE-E WINDS IN 
THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT N OF 9N W OF 130W...AND FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN
122W-130W. N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 25N BETWEEN 
117W-125W.

GAP NE-E WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT SAT 
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT...AND ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HRS BEFORE 
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TO 20 KT BY SUN MORNING...AND FURTHER 
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE MINIMAL GALE ON MON AS PRES GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS OVER SE MEXICO.

$$
AGUIRRE