000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212216
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...2N78W 2N110W 5N125W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 2N-5N 
BETWEEN 84W-87.5W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 112W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH JUST W OF THE AREA ALONG 143W IS MAKING LITTLE
EWD PROGRESSION AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR 12.5N112W 
REMAINS ABOUT STATIONARY. EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
STREAMING ENE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REACHING TO 126W WHERE A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AND S 
OF RIDGE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 117W-131W.

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO 
TO SE MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 10.5N100W. CONFLUENT FLOW 
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN AMPLE MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 15N E OF 115W WHERE SKIES ARE NOTED AS 
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVING W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 100W-110W. A 
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 12N110W AND NE TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND CONTINUES FURTHER NE 
ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT 
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS SE MEXICO...AND OVER 
MUCH OF THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS 
PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SE OF THE TROUGH TO NRN S AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION AT 32N129W AND STRETCHES SE TO 
23N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 112W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE-E WINDS IN 
THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT N OF 7N W OF 125W...AND 10N-20N BETWEEN 
120W-125W. N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 25N BETWEEN 
117W-125W.

GAP NE-E WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT SAT 
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE LESSEN TO JUST BELOW 
GALE STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH 
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE