000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...3N78W 3N90W 6N112W 5N120W 6N130W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS 
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 110W-118W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 120W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
NEAR 30N139W AND EXTENDS SW TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ENE 
15 KT NEAR 22N143W...AND CONTINUES S TO NEAR 10N148W. EXTENSIVE 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH 
REACHING TO 126W WHERE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IDENTIFIED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT TO 
THE SE OF THE TROUGH AND S OF RIDGE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 117W-131W.

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO AND TO NEAR 14N103W. DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
SE OF THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 
13N109W TO 5N113W AIDING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
109W-115W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS 
RESULTING IN AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 15N E OF 
120W WHERE SKIES ARE NOTED AS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SCATTERED 
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 
112W-123W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N112W NE THROUGH 15N107W TO ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO AT 20N100W. THE JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT EXTENSIVE 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MEXICO...AND OVER MUCH OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO SE OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT S OF 8N BETWEEN 90W-105W. A 
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 85W S OF 5N. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AND TO OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION AT 32N129W AND STRETCHES SE TO 
21N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 112W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE-E WINDS IN 
THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT FROM 7N-28N W OF 128W...AND ALSO N OF 8N
BETWEEN 118W-128W.
 
GAP NE-E WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HOURS AND LAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS POSSIBLY UP TO 40 
KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE GRADIENT WEAKENS 
RATHER QUICKLY ON FRI ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DROP TO BELOW GALE 
FORCE.

$$
AGUIRRE