000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...3N77W 5N85W 5N92W 5N95W 7N104W 
7N110W 6N120W 6N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-131W...W OF 138W AND 
ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-91W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
107W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
NEAR 30N139W AND EXTENDS SW TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ENE 
15 KT NEAR 22N143W...AND CONTINUES S TO NEAR 10N147W. EXTENSIVE 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH 
REACHING TO 126W WHERE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IDENTIFIED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT TO 
THE SE OF THE TROUGH AND S OF RIDGE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 117W-131W.

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM MID-WEST PORTION OF
THE U.S. SW THROUGH NW MEXICO AND THROUGH 19N109W TO 14N112W. 
THE TROUGH EARLIER PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR A 
STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N101W TO 6N105W. CONFLUENT FLOW 
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN AMPLE MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 15N E OF 120W WHERE SKIES ARE NOTED AS 
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
MOVING WSW FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 112W-123W. A SUBTROPICAL JET 
STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N112W NE 
THROUGH 15N107W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT 20N100W. THE JET 
CONTINUES TO ADVECT EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS 
MEXICO...AND OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SE OF A LINE FROM 
SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS 
PRESENT S OF 8N BETWEEN 90W-105W. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 
85W S OF 5N. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NW 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AND TO OVER THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION AT 32N129W AND STRETCHES THROUGH 
26N124W 21N117W TO 17N11W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF
14N W OF 112W. THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT FROM 8N-28N W OF
130W...AND ALSO FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 118W-130W.
 
GAP NE WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS WHEN THEY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF 30 KT.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO IS ALLOWING FOR THE INITIAL 
ONSET OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KT BY
THU EVENING...THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE FRI 
AFTERNOON.

$$
AGUIRRE