000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...3N77W 5N85W 5N92W 7N101W 4N107W
5N115W 5N125W 5N133W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-106W...
110W-113W...117W-121W AND 125W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-87W AND W 
OF 137W.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM 
OF 11N102W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
NEAR 30N139W AND EXTENDS SW TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ENE
15 KT NEAR 22N143W...AND CONTINUES S TO NEAR 10N147W. EXTENSIVE 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH 
REACHING TO 126W WHERE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IDENTIFIED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT TO 
THE SE OF THE TROUGH AND S OF RIDGE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 117W-131W.

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM MID-WEST PORTION OF
THE U.S. SW THROUGH NW MEXICO AND THROUGH 19N109W TO 14N112W. 
THE TROUGH IS AIDING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH 
FROM 13N101W TO 7N104W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE BACK SIDE OF 
THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
N OF 15N E OF 120W WHERE SKIES ARE NOTED AS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH 
ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW FROM 
12N-19N BETWEEN 112W-123W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ROUNDS THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N112W NE THROUGH 15N107W TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT 20N100W. MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS ARE IN 
THE RANGE OF 40-50 KT BETWEEN 16N-19N AND E OF 104W. THE JET IS 
ADVECTING EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MEXICO...AND 
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SE OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA 
TO TAMPICO MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT S OF 8N 
BETWEEN 90W-105W. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 83W S OF 7N. 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NW ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AND TO OVER THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION AT 32N129W AND STRETCHES THROUGH 
26N124W 21N117W TO 17N11W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF
14N W OF 112W. THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT FROM 7N-25N W OF
130W...AND ALSO FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 110W-130W.
 
GAP NE WINDS TO 20 IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS WHEN THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.  

A HIGH CENTER OF 1028 MB OVER NRN MEXICO IS CREATING A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO...AND WILL BRING THE ONSET ON
N WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS EVENING
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY PEAKING
UP TO 40 KT BY THU AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TO BELOW GALE IN BY FRI MORNING.

$$
AGUIRRE