000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS AXIS 4N77W 5N86W 3N105W 4N120W 3N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 100W...AND 
WITHIN 150-180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 124W...AND W OF 
136W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED BUT 
SLOW MOVING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ERN ARIZONA SWD 
ACROSS NW MEXICO NEAR 30N109W THEN EXTENDING SWD THROUGH 20N115W 
TO 17N125W. AN AREA OF VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING 
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COVERED THE AREA FROM 18N TO 
28N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. FURTHER W...AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE WAS NEAR 27N128W AND APPEARED TO BE IN PHASE WITH 
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 8N135W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
CONNECTING THE TWO FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WAS NOTED IN 
THE AREA FROM 5N TO 20N W OF 130W WITH THE MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE SPREADING N TO NEAR 20N135W...THEN TURNING E AND 
CONCENTRATING INTO A 180 NM WIDE PLUME EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 
14N130W TO 15N115W...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO INTO THE SRN 
PLAINS OF THE U.S. FEEDING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INTO A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS WWD ACROSS 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PAC TO A CREST 
NEAR 13N100W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...BETWEEN 86W AND 100W...BUT THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS EVAPORATING WITHIN AN AREA OF 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 124W...WITH MOST OF THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ADVECTED NE INTO THE PLUME DESCRIBED ABOVE. 
 
AT THE SURFACE...STATIONARY HIGH PRES IS NEAR 34N138W 1035 
MB...WITH A RIDGE SE TO 13N100W. NW 20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED NE 
OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING S TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT 12 TO 18 FT TO THE N OF 
30N WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 20 
TO 25 KT RANGE ARE FOUND S OF THE RIDGE TO HAWAII WITH SEAS 9 TO 
15 FT.   

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 
HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN. 

GAP WINDS...EASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE CURRENTLY 
IN THE 20 KT RANGE AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE 
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. N WINDS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE BRIEFLY ON TUE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA BUT 
DIMINISH TO 15 KT WED. 
 
$$
COBB