000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS AXIS 04N79W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM  
09N114W TO 07N121W AND ALSO A LINE FROM 07N136W TO 08N141W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OF 
04N113W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 09N140W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 
CREST ERODING ALONG 21N BETWEEN 140W AND 132W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ENHANCED CONVECTION EARLIER NEAR 08N139W WITH THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE SPREADING N TO NEAR 20N135W...THEN TURNING E AND 
CONCENTRATING INTO A 180 NM WIDE PLUME EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 
14N130W TO 14N118W...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO THROUGH AN 
UPPER CYCLONE NOTED AT 26N104W. THE PLUME CONTINUES NE OVER THE 
SE CONUS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH LIES OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N111W 15N120W. DRY 
UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH...TO THE NW OF THE MOISTURE 
PLUME...ROUGHLY N OF 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 137W.   

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND RIDGES WSW 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PAC TO A CREST NEAR 10N100W. ITCZ 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS 
RIDGE...BETWEEN 75W AND 100W...BUT THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
EVAPORATES NEAR THE CONVECTION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR 09N115W IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 122W...WITH 
MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE INTO THE PLUME DESCRIBED 
ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY FROM 07N TO 22N E OF 
100W.
 
AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRES IS NEAR 34N138W 1035 MB...WITH A 
RIDGE SE TO 12N100W. NW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED NE OF THE 
RIDGE EXTENDING S TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH 
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT 12 TO 17 FT TO THE N OF 30N WHERE GALE 
FORCE WINDS CONTINUE. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE 
ARE FOUND S OF THE RIDGE TO HAWAII WITH SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.   

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED. 

GAP WINDS...EASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE CURRENTLY 
IN THE 20 KT RANGE AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE 
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. N WINDS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE BRIEFLY ON TUE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA BUT 
DIMINISH TO 15 KT WED. 
 
$$
NELSON