000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO 
SHOW LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS S OF MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO LOW PRES DIGGING 
INTO THE WESTERN STATES...BUT ALSO DUE TO MORE MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. RECENT JASON ALTIMETER PASS 
AND SHIP DATA SHOWED SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS WELL...
GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE IN A SWATH FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. AT THE UPPER 
LEVELS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER 
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WAS PROVIDING SOME 
ENHANCEMENT OF SMALL POCKETS OF LIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ...BUT THIS HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED IN THE FACE OF VERY 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS 
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE INTO MON AND TUE...AND 
PROMPT FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH 48 
HOURS. A SURGE OF NLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT OVER NW 
MEXICO WILL PUSH SE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST S OF MANZANILLO MON 
INTO TUE. LOOKING INTO MIDWEEK...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BRING STRONG NLY FLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED.

W OF 110...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CALIFORNIA-ARIZONA
BORDER TO NEAR 24N135W IS SHIFTING EWD AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 138W AND EXTENDING WELL N OF THE AREA. 
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 
34N137W AND THE COAST OF BAJA HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE SWATH OF 
25 TO 30 KNOT NW TO N WINDS N OF 25N E OF 127W WITH GALE FORCE 
NLY WINDS JUST N OF 30N. WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL DIMINISH 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND 
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST S OF 
THE SURFACE HIGH. FURTHER S...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 11N119W 
TO 3N115W AND WAS SUPPORTING MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. THIS WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND 
GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT. MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$
COBB