000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 1N105W 2N120W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 
98W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO 
SHOW LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS S OF MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO LOW PRES DIGGING 
INTO THE WESTERN STATES...BUT ALSO DUE TO MORE MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A RECENT JASON ALTIMETER PASS 
SHOWED SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS WELL...GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 
5 FT RANGE IN A SWATH FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF MEXICO 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN...WAS PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SMALL POCKETS OF 
LIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT THIS HAS LARGELY 
DIMINISHED IN THE FACE OF VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND OVER THE TROPICAL E 
PACIFIC. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL 
INCREASE THROUGH MON AND TUE...AND PROMPT FRESH TO STRONG ELY 
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINNING SOMETIME ON MON 
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. A SURGE OF NLY WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH COLD FRONT OVER NW MEXICO WILL PUSH SE ALONG THE MEXICAN 
COAST S OF MANZANILLO MON INTO TUE. LOOKING INTO MIDWEEK...A 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
BRING STRONG NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED.

W OF 110...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CALIFORNIA-ARIZONA
BORDER TO NEAR 25N135W IS SHIFTING EWD AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 138W AND EXTEDING WELL N OF THE AREA. 
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 
36N139W AND THE COAST OF BAJA HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE SWATH OF 
25 TO 30 KNOT NW TO N WINDS N OF 25N E OF 127W WITH GALE FORCE 
NLY WINDS JUST N OF 30N. WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL DIMINISH 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND 
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST S OF 
THE SURFACE HIGH. FURTHER S...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 11N119W 
TO 3N115W AND WAS SUPPORTING MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. THIS WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND 
GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT. MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$
COBB