000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 1N104W 2N113W 2N120W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W 
AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM BETWEEN 
1323W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW A CONTINUING LIGHT 
WIND REGIME OVER EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS S OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO LOW PRES DIGGING INTO THE 
WESTERN STATES...BUT ALSO DUE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS WELL IN THE 
ABSENCE OF LARGE SWELL. DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ON THE WESTERN EDGE 
OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN...HAD BEEN 
ENHANCING SMALL POCKETS OF LIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT 
THIS HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY...AND PROMPT 
FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MON AND 
TUE. A SURGE OF NLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT OVER NW 
MEXICO WILL PUSH SE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST S OF MANZANILLO MON 
INTO TUE. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BRING STRONG NLY FLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED.

W OF 110...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 
NEAR 25N135W IS SHIFTING EWD AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED NEAR 37N142W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA AREA. SCATTEROMETER AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE NLY FLOW OFF THE BAJA 
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER TO THE NW...A 1037 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR 37N132W ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
RIDGE...IS SHIFTING SE AND MAINTAINING A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES MAINLY W OF 125W. WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL 
DIMINISH MON INTO TUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE 
AREA...BUT THE FRESH TO STRONG WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST S OF THE 
SURFACE HIGH. FURTHER S...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 15N ROUGHLY ALONG 117W SUPPORTING MODERATE 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 115W AND 120W ALONG 10N. THIS WILL LIFT OUT 
TO THE NE AND GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT. MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT GRADUALLY DECAY 
THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN