000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 2N79W 6N101W 5N121W 7N130W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING WEST TO AROUND 100W. DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
MODEST CONVECTION JUST N OF THE ITCZ AROUND 90W...AND IS 
SUSTAINING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 100W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
ALSO DEPICTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 106W 
NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO. DESPITE SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST...DEEP LAYER 
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...LIMITING 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER TO SOUTH...ASCAT IMAGERY FORM 
EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED LIGHT NLY FLOW THROUGH PANAMA ISTHMUS. 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEA HEIGHTS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FEET IN ALL 
AREAS E OF 110W DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF 
SIGNIFICANT SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL 
PICK UP...PROMPTING FRESH ELY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
BY MON NIGHT. 

W OF 115W...
AN UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 28N140W IS 
SHIFTING EAST AND ALIGNING MORE N-S AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED NEAR 33N150W. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...AN 
ASSOCIATED STRONG 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY NEAR 38N141W 
WILL SHIFT E AS WELL. AS A RESULT...ALREADY STRONG NLY SURFACE 
FLOW DOWN THE CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA COASTS WILL INCREASE TO 
NEAR 30 KT BY TOMORROW. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO 
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA SW TO NEAR 5N140W. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A 
JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOW SEA HEIGHTS GENERALLY TO 9 FT OFF BAJA 
COAST IN NLY SWELL. GIVEN THE FETCH AND DURATION OF THE NLY 
FLOW...WAVEWATCH MODEL SHOWS COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS TO 17 FT W OF 
125W. THE STRONG NLY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER E...BUT THE FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE 
FURTHER S...AN CUTOFF UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 
WHILE THIS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT 
ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ WILL KEEP SMALL 
POCKETS OF CONVECTION ACTIVE W OF 120W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN