000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151516 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT MAR 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 5N90W 8N110W 9N127W 6N136W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W-122W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIES ACROSS THE FAR ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA SW TO NEAR 5N102W WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGING WWD FROM COLOMBIA TO NEAR 96W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SLY TOWARDS SE MEXICO/GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG 98W MOVING SLOWLY WWD...HOWEVER A RECENT ASCAT PASS ONLY SHOWED MINOR TROUGHING WHICH SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE IS MAINLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. FARTHER N...WLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW LIES N OF 14N WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 110W MOVING ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TOWARDS MEXICO. WIDESPREAD MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS E OF 115W INTO MEXICO AND IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE AREA. SOME SEA FOG/LOW STRATUS IS HANGING AROUND THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE DAY. W OF 115W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS PUSHING S INTO THE AREA FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO 29N140W WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW LYING N OF 20N BETWEEN 140W AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIES N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SW UNITED STATES...BUT WINDS ARE STILL TO 90 KT ALONG 30N JUST W OF BAJA. FARTHER S...THE UPPER FLOW IS PRIMARILY WLY ALTHOUGH A CUT-OFF LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 8N126W AND IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-134W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP TO A TROUGH AND MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 HRS. STRONG HIGH PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 900 NM W OF CALIFORNIA BUT REACHES INTO THE AREA AND THE PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES W OF 130W AND ENHANCED WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST N OF 26N. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH WINDS FOLLOWING SUITE...AND NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED OFF THE BAJA COAST N OF 26N BY SUN MORNING. WITH GALES OCCURRING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...LARGE 12-17 FT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKERS ON THE W BAJA BEACHES...ESPECIALLY THOSE FACING THE NW. $$ BERG