000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 5N100W 9N120W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 
117W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 125W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 26N135W TO 19N136W. SOME MID TO 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE TROUGH. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS N OF 13N E OF THE TROUGH TO 115W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS LOCATED NEAR 7N128W.
DIFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS ERN TEXAS WITH ITS 
AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS CNTRL MEXICO TO 19N115W. THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW HERE HAS BECOME RATHER ZONAL WITH WNW WINDS IN THE 
30-50 KT RANGE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BRINGING MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES IN THE AREA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
W ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE PACIFIC TO 5N98W. E TO SE FLOW
AROUND THE S PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA INTO THE PACIFIC S OF
10N E OF 95W.

SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 12N123W TO 6N126W
MOVING W 10-15 KT IS AIDING CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 14N99W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA 
GENERALLY TO N OF 14N W OF 99W.

$$
DGS