000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150313
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 6N90W 5N100W 10N110W 10N120W 
7N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 120W...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT N OF 13N BETWEEN 134W-120W
WITH A MEAN RIDGE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 27N125W 32N126.5W SE TO
13N120W. TO THE W OF 134W...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 26N137W SE TO 18N135W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 135W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG 124W FROM 7N-12N MOVING W 15 KT IS ALSO AIDING CONVECTION 
HERE. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 
23N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO N OF 17N WITH 
ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS MOVING W SEEN TO THE S OF 19N AND W OF 135W.

E OF 120W...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS ERN TEXAS WITH ITS AXIS 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS CNTRL MEXICO SW TO 19N115W. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW HERE HAS BECOME RATHER ZONAL WITH WNW WINDS IN THE 30-50 KT 
RANGE AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED ALONG 116W N OF 21N.
SKIES HERE ARE MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE ONLY LOW CLOUDS IN 
THE FORM OF A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SWD TO THE N 
OF 22N FROM ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA WWD TO 125W. A MORE 
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE NE PART BEGINNING LATE SAT AND INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW WINDS...POSSIBLY UP TO 
30 KT...AND LARGE SEAS REACHING UP 17 FT PER LATEST WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE...IN NW SWELLS.

S OF 20N...PLENTIFUL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN 
STREAMING ENE FROM THE ITCZ TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO AND NE TO THE 
NRN GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MENTIONED 
ABOVE. A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 14N E OF 105W TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT 
IS CAUSING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ERN WATERS N 
OF 7N AND TO THE E OF 102W. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO THE S OF 
THIS RIDGE ARE ADVECTING CIRRUS BLOWOFF CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION N 
OF THE ITCZ AND OVER S AMERICA WNW TO NEAR 95W. AT THE SURFACE
...A TROUGH ALONG 96W FROM 3N TO 7N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH.

$$
AGUIRRE