000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142217
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6S78W 5N90W 4N100W 6N110W 9N121W
7N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-126W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
120W-123W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
129W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 120W...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT N OF 21N BETWEEN 120W-
130W. TO THE W OF 130W A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
29N138W SE TO 25N136W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NNE
IS NEAR 23N138W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 135W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
122W FROM 7N-11N MOVING W 15 KT IS ALSO AIDING CONVECTION
HERE. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO
23N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO N OF 17N WITH 
ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS MOVING W SEEN TO THE S OF 19N AND W OF 135W.

E OF 120W...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS ERN TEXAS WITH ITS AXIS 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS CNTRL MEXICO SW TO 19N115W. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW HERE HAS BECOME RATHER ZONAL WITH WNW WINDS IN THE 30-50 KT 
RANGE AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED ALONG 116W N OF 21N.
SKIES HERE ARE MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE ONLY LOW CLOUDS IN 
THE FORM OF A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SWD TO THE N 
OF 22N FROM ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA WWD TO 125W. A MORE 
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE NE PART BEGINNING LATE SAT...AND INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW WINDS...POSSIBLY UP TO
30 KT...AND LARGE SEAS IN NW SWELLS.

S OF 20N...PLENTIFUL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN 
STREAMING ENE FROM THE ITCZ TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO AND NE TO THE 
NRN GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MENTIONED 
ABOVE. A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 14N E OF 105W TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT 
IS CAUSING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ERN WATERS N 
OF 7N AND TO THE E OF 102W. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO THE S OF 
THIS RIDGE ARE ADVECTING CIRRUS BLOWOFF CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION N 
OF THE ITCZ AND OVER S AMERICA WNW TO NEAR 95W.

$$
AGUIRRE