000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 4N90W 2N102W 3N110W 7N120W
5N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-93W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 119W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 125W...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT N OF 21N WITH A HIGH CENTER
LOCATED NEAR 27N132W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW...MOVING SLOWLY 
N...IS NUDGING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE AND IS JUST W OF THE AREA 
NEAR 17N141W WITH A TROUGH SE THROUGH 9N140W TO 7N133W AND TO
3N125W. THE TWO FEATURES ARE PRODUCING CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN 
THEM...WITH RESULTANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N. 
AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING FAR TO THE N OF THE 
AREA AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF 
IS PRODUCING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO ITS E WITH BROAD SLY 
FLOW EXTENDING FROM 5N TO 18N WHICH IS HELPING TO TRIGGER 
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE ITCZ. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
IS EVIDENT TO THE SW OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W SEWD TO 23N125W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE 
AREA GENERALLY TO N OF 17N WITH ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING W SEEN TO THE S 
OF 19N AND W OF 131W.

E OF 125W...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS TEXAS WITH ITS AXIS 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS NW MEXICO TO OVER SRN BAJA...AND TO NEAR 
20N120W. THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE 
EWD...WITH 90+ KT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES LYING IN A NARROW ZONE 
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACROSS NRN MEXICO IN 
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EWD ACROSS 
NRN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HRS AND DAMPEN OUT LEAVING A 
RATHER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN ITS WAKE MAINLY TO THE N OF 20N. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINLY BEHIND THE AXIS 
SPREADING OVER MOST OF NW MEXICO W TO 125W AND N OF 20N...WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE CORNER WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
STREAMING SEWD FROM AROUND THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE W OF 
125W. SKIES HERE ARE MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE ONLY LOW 
CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SWD 
TO THE N OF 22N FROM ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA WWD TO 125W. A MORE 
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE NE PART BEGINNING LATE SAT...AND INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW WINDS AND LARGE SEAS 
IN NW SWELLS.

S OF 20N...PLENTIFUL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN 
STREAMING ENE FROM THE ITCZ TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO AND NE TO THE 
NRN GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MENTIONED 
ABOVE. A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 14N E OF 105W TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT 
IS CAUSING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ERN WATERS N 
OF 7N AND TO THE E OF 102W. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO THE S OF 
THIS RIDGE ARE ADVECTING CIRRUS BLOWOFF CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION N 
OF THE ITCZ AND OVER S AMERICA WNW TO NEAR 95W.

$$
AGUIRRE