000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131519 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU MAR 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 1N105W 6N118W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 7N E OF 82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 85W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 108W-123W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 128W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... A FAIRLY FLAT AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE REGIME WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 120W...WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 134W...AND A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING NW WITHIN THIS BLOCKING REGIME NEAR 17N139W. THE TWO FEATURES ARE PRODUCING CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THEM...AND HENCE AN AREA OF MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 18N-28N W OF 120W. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF IS PRODUCING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO ITS E WITH BROAD SLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM 5N TO 18N WHICH IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE ITCZ. ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS FIRMLY IN PLACE NEAR 27N134W WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS...KEEPING CONDITIONS BENIGN N OF 15N. E OF 120W... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NW MEXICO TO NEAR 20N114W. THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE EWD...WITH 90+ KT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES LYING IN A NARROW ZONE FROM THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACROSS NRN MEXICO IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE MAINLY BEHIND THE AXIS SPREADING OVER MOST OF NW MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. MID/UPPER LEVEL SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR BECAUSE OF THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS/SEA FOG LYING WITHIN 100-200 NM OF THE BAJA COAST WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL AIR IS BEING COOLED BY UPWELLED COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE TROPICS...THE ENTRANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD BETWEEN 100W-120W ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE PLUME IS BEING SHUNTED OFF AS IT CROSSES CNTRL MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 13N E OF 105W AND IS PRODUCING A TONGUE OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WITH THE DEEP EASTERLIES SUPPRESSED S OF THE RIDGE...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THE S AS WELL AS THE ITCZ WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES REMOVED FROM THE EQUATOR. $$ BERG