000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 01N85W TO 03N92W TO 00N110W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 02N93W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 
NM OF 03N123W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 05N138W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 13N106W TO 10N111W TO 11N115W AND LINE 11N120W TO 07N126W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 21N153W HAS A SHARP AND UNSTABLE RIDGE 
COLLAPSING SE ALONG 31N137W TO 36N122W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED 
UNDER THE RIDGE N OF 27N W OF 120W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL UPPER 
ANTICYCLONES ESTIMATED NEAR 06N106W AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 
13N78W COMBINE INTO A BROAD E TO RIDGE ALONG 10N OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA E OF 132W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 106W AND 133W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. CONVECTION IS ALSO 
ENHANCED NEAR 02N93W BUT THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CONTAINED S OF 
5N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
TROPICS ARE DRY S OF 20N E OF 100W. BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES 
LIES AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CYCLONES AT 28N115W AND 
16N137W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 25N115W 21N135W. 
    
AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N130W 10N105W. NE OF 
THE RIDGE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT IN N 
SWELL. SW OF RIDGE EASTERLY TRADES ARE IN 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 
9 FT.

GAP WINDS...ONE LAST NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY THU. GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE STILL IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH TONIGHT TO E 20 KT.
  
$$
NELSON