000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 3N82W 3N100W 1N105W 1N114W 5N125W 5N133W  
4N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS FROM 93W-98W AND FROM 117W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N119W 11N140W 
ADVECTING TRPCL MOISTURE NE ALONG ITS 75 KT JET CORE FROM 
15N-20N BETWEEN 117W-129W.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN 
CARIBBEAN EXTEND W TO SMALL ANTICYCLONE AT 8N113W.  MODERATE TO 
STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN SMALL ANTICYCLONE AND TROUGH 
ENHANCING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AXIS FROM 117W TO 
125W WITH SOME DEBRIS ALSO MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND SRN 
GULF OF MEXICO FEEDING WATER TO WEAK COLD FRONT.  FAIRLY DRY W 
OF 135W FROM 5N-25N.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES RIDGE 1027 MB AT 38N130W HAS WEAK RIDGE EXTEND S TO 
15N W OF 105W.  RIDGE MAINTAINS WEAK NE TRADES W OF 120W WHICH 
SHOULD DIMINISH AS RIDGE DRIFTS S.  N WINDS ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA W COAST EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS RIDGE APPROACHES.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS SHORT LIVED INCREASE IN N WIND AS WEAK 
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 36 HRS AS 
LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WEAKENS.  
 
$$
WALLY BARNES