000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101555 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAR 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N77W 6N86W 4N102W 6N117W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 15N106.5W 12.5N112.5W. ...DISCUSSION... TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN A DEEP-LAYERED...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NRN MEXICO SHOULD TRACK ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND USHER IN A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NERN MEXICO. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WED LATE TUE AND EARLY WED...NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WED BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE WED. WITH THE WIND EVENT OF SHORT DURATION...SEAS COULD LOCALLY BUILD TO 8 FT BY WED MORNING BUT JUST AS QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATE WED AND THU. TO THE SOUTHWEST...A SEPARATE STREAM OF WLY FLOW ALONG 20N FROM 140W TO SW MEXICO CONTAINS TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THIS MORNING. THE WEAKER OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES ALONG 120W SHOULD BECOME ASSIMILATED BY A MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SW CONUS EARLY WED. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...HOWEVER...A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR TO THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF IT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 15N106.5W 12.5N112.5W. THE OTHER SYSTEM NEAR 19N139W...ALREADY CUT OFF FROM THE MID- LATITUDE WLY TO THE NORTH...SHOULD DRIFT SW AND BECOME TRAPPED AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NEAR 27N136W WED AND THU. ELSEWHERE...A 1026MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N130W SHOULD KEEP A STEADY NE TO E FLOW OF UP TO 20 KT BLOWING FROM 8N TO 17N WEST OF 120W TODAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SE AND STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS WEEK...A STRONGER NE TO E FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL OVER A LARGER EXPANSE OF THE EPAC...FROM 7 TO 20N AND WEST OF 112W BY WED. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL...OR WIND WAVE-GENERATED SWELL SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...OLD W TO NW SWELL OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE AS FAR SE AS 20N110W BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY NEW NW SWELL BEING GENERATED BY A STORM CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SEAS OF 6 TO 11 FT SHOULD BEGIN ARRIVING NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 130W BY WED AND THU...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THU MORNING OVER THE FAR NW...NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 137W. THIS NEW SWELL SHOULD BE GENERATED BY A LARGE STORM CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 42N172W. FINALLY...LONG PERIOD SW SWELL OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS CONTINUES ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC GENERALLY S OF 17N AND EAST OF 125W...PRODUCING WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 8 FT. SWELL AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY OVER THIS AREA BY MID-WEEK. FINALLY...A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CURRENTLY DRIVING STRONG NE TO E FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 12N AND EAST OF 90W THROUGH AT LEAST TUE...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY EARLY WED. SEAS COULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 OR 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE WED. NLY FLOW OF UP TO 20 KT ALSO CONTINUES TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA...FAVORING WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 6 OR 7 FT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM DOWNSTREAM. $$ KIMBERLAIN