000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 01N78W TO 01N93W TO 07N112W TO 04N123W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 04N86W TO 00N94W TO 04N113W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N109W TO 06N118W TO 07N138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 01S139W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING 
N ACROSS THE EQUATOR CRESTING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 17N140W TO 24N134W TO 20N120W. AN UPPER 
CYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
21N145W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING NE INTO THE 
AREA N OF 23N W OF 136W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED 
NEAR 08N135W...WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N 
UNDER THE RIDGE FROM 05N TO 23N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W. SOME 
MOISTURE IS NOW TURNING CYCLONICALLY NW TO NEAR 31N140W IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE. 

AN TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 
16N80W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST OVER THE 
TROPICS AT 08N97W. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA 
EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N95W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
24N111W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S ALONG 10N114W TO AN UPPER 
CYCLONE OVER THE EQUATOR AT 120W. THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED S OF 4N E 
OF 110W. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 14N E OF 
122W AND S OF 14N E OF 107W.  

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A HIGH PRES IS NEAR 32N130W 1026 MB WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N118W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM 
THE SURFACE HIGH TO BEYOND 27N145W. S OF RIDGE BRISK NE TO E 
TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. NE OF RIDGE N WINDS TO 
20 KT WITH N SWELLS TO 9 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
WILL SLIP INTO THE EXTREME NW PORTION MON MORNING STALLING AND 
DISSIPATING MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 1230 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK SCAT PASS 
THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THE STRONG GALE WARNING IN EFFECT. I 
EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING TO MIDDAY SUN ALLOWING FOR ONE LAST 
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW TO SURGE AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST 
AFTER SUNRISE SUN. ALSO EXPECT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS AT 20 KT 
JUST AFTER SUNRISE MON THEN DIMINISH.

GULF OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...STRONG COLD FRONT OVER GULF OF 
HONDURAS AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 
KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT SUN THEN 
RELAX TO 20 KT MON. 

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE 
SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON