000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070350 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI MAR 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG...3N78W 1N97W 7N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 3N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SEWD AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE FAR N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N122W TO 29N130W. THE TROUGH HAS BECOME FRACTURED WITH A SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUING THROUGH 28N136W 27N140W TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N144W. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER AIR FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND DOWNSTREAM FLATTENING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 123W S OF 26N. THIS FLOW IN CONCERT WITH A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EWD AND ESEWD TO ALONG 110W S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ITCZ CONVECTION WAS BEING ENHANCED BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ERN TEXAS THROUGH W-CENTRAL MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 18N102W. A SHEARED EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO A VERY WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 4N117W. AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WRN CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND 100W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTED WITH ELY FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WWD ACROSS THE FAR TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 95W. SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1028 MB NEAR 33N133W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. LATEST AVAILABLE QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED SOLID AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES FROM 6N TO 20N W OF 120W. GAP WINDS... NWP MODEL DATA SUGGESTS NWLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLOWLY SPREAD AS FAR S AS 23N OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING ALTOGETHER IN 36 HOURS OR SO. COLD FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO FORCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 24 HOURS QUICKLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 30 HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NWP MODELS SUGGEST GALES WILL PEAK AT 40-45 KT WITHIN THE 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME...EARLY SAT. $$ COBB