000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...6N79W  1N99W  6N129W  6N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N78W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE FAR NW CORNER 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N125W SWWD THROUGH 30N131W 27N140W THEN 
CONTINUES TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N143W. STRONGLY 
DIFFLUENT UPPER AIR FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 
DOWNSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 123W S OF 27N. THIS FLOW
IN CONCERT WITH A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ADVECTING COPIOUS 
AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EWD TO ALONG 115W. ITCZ 
CONVECTION WAS BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113W AND 
117W. 

DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN TEXAS THROUGH WRN MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 
18N105W. A SHEARED EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO A 
VERY WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 3N115W. AN AREA OF STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE 
TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 
TROUGH 95W AND 120W. LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
WRN CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FLOW OVER THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF THE TROUGH AND 100W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT NOTED WITH ELY FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS WWD ACROSS THE FAR TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 95W. 

AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRES 1026 MB NEAR 34N131W WITH 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N W 
OF 110W. LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED SOLID AREA OF 20 KT NE 
TRADES FROM 6N TO 20N W OF 120W. 

GAP WINDS... 
1326 HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NWLY 20 KT WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
INCREASE TO 25 KT AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 23N OVER THE NEXT 12-18 
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING ALTOGETHER IN 24-36 HOURS. 

COLD FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
EXPECTED TO FORCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITHIN 24-30 HOURS QUICKLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 36 
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
COBB