000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061619
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...6N79W  1N99W  6N129W  6N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N78W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS NW CORNER OF BASIN FROM 32N132W TO 
27N140W THEN CONTINUE TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 19N142W.  VERY 
DIFFLUENT AIR FLOW BETWEEN VORTEX AND DOWNSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE CENTERED AT 11N120W WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTED NE BY 
50 KT JET CORE.  SWATH OF MOISTURE ALOFT IS WASTED OVER CENTRAL 
E PAC WHERE MASSIVE 1026 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM CAPS ANY VERTICAL 
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS AN ABSOLUTE LACK OF UP LIFTING 
MECHANISMS.

DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN 
TEXAS THROUGH SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO VERY WEAK CYCLONIC VORTEX 
AT 3N118W.  TROUGH DRIES AREA WITHIN 300 NM OFF AXIS N OF 20N.  
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WRN CARIBBEAN COMPLETES 
REMAINDER ARE E OF TROUGH AND AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY UNDER 
ITS COVERAGE.  GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN RIDGES IN PLACE WITH A 
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS ADVANCING E SHIFT NE UPON REACHING 125W 
UNABLE DENT UNMOVABLE RIDGES.

AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRES 1026 MB AT 33N131W 
HAS RIDGE EXTEND FROM 107W TO WELL BEYOND 140W.  ONLY CONVECTION 
NOTED LIES UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR 115W ALONG ITCZ.

SURFACE... 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA NW WIND INCREASE TO 25 KT AND AS FAR S AS 23N 
BEFORE RETREATING BACK N LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.  

COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO FORCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 36 HRS QUICKLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 
WITHIN 42 HR THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES