000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG...01N79W 01N95W 07N110W 09N130W 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 3N79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE POINT 
8.5N130W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
THREE TROUGHS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA ONE IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 
A LINE 32N125W 25N125W 20N120W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS EXCEPT FOR BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS 
OVER MEXICO NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
EAST BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE SAME AREA 
IN 36 HOURS.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AND IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST WEST OF THE 
AREA NEAR 17N143W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST. A LARGE 
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED RAIN ARE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF 
THE CIRCULATION AND COVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 
125W. 

THE THIRD TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH 
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N. THIS FEATURE WILL 
BE PART OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER 
NORTHWEST MEXICO. SOME MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS EAST OF 105W AND NORTH OF 5N IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH ONLY 
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 110W. WEAK LOW IS ALONG THE 
ITCZ NEAR 6N132W. LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN 
BECOMING DIFFUSE IN 48 HOURS.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 
KT THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL RAPIDLY REACH GALE FORCE 
FRIDAY NIGHT. 

$$
LL