000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050359
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 01N80W TO 06N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 04N E OF 90W AND WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N112W TO 10N120W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE S OF THE EQUATOR HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NE 
TO A SHARP CREST AT 08N134W. AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 16N143W HAS 
ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA FROM 13N 
TO 23N W OF 133W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 122W AND 140W WITH SOME THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE UPPER 
RIDGE AND IS BEGINNING TO TURN CYCLONICALLY NW INTO THE UPPER 
CYCLONE...ALL WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE 07N140W 18N128W. 

A SERIES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE DEEP 
TROPICS E OF 113W RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE AREA 
CRESTING ALONG POINTS 20N105W 27N93W 26N83W. 

THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY UPPER 
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N88W TO 24N108W TO 15N122W THEN S TO AN 
UPPER CYCLONE AT 06S119W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF 17N W OF 
110W AND CONTINUING E ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO N 
OF 26N.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION ALONG 10N BETWEEN 109W AND 121W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... 
ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N113W TO 
21N101W...TURNING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
  
AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N135W TO 
13N105W. NW SWELLS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE SE MERGING WITH SW SWELLS CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND 
CONTINUING NE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT EXTREME SE PART. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY 
TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT THU MORNING. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E 10 TO 15 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM THE 
GAP.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING BUT STILL 
EXPECT A MINIMAL GALE TONIGHT DIMINISHING BELOW GALE JUST AFTER 
SUNRISE WED.
 
$$
NELSON