000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE MAR 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 01N102W TO 07N119W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF LINE 03N E OF 90W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N111W TO 09N123W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 09N137W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE STATIONARY NEAR 10S147W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST AT 08N134W. AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 17N142W HAS ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA FROM 13N TO 23N W OF 133W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 122W AND 140W WITH SOME THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 129W AND 134W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AND IS BEGINNING TO TURN CYCLONICALLY NW INTO THE UPPER CYCLONE...ALL WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE 07N140W 16N132W. A SERIES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 113W RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE AREA CRESTING ALONG POINTS 20N110W 25N100W 25N90W. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N88W TO 22N112W TO 12N122W THEN S TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 03S126W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF 17N W OF 11W AND CONTINUING E ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION ALONG 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 122W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N114W TO 21N103W...TURNING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N135W TO 13N105W. N AND NW SWELLS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE MERGING WITH W AND SW SWELLS CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND CONTINUING NE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N...N WINDS AT 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT IN OPEN NNW TO SSE FETCH. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN THU MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E 10 TO 15 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM THE GAP. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING BUT STILL EXPECT N 25 KT WINDS TO INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE JUST AFTER SUNRISE WED. $$ NELSON