000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 01N80W TO 01N97W TO 07N119W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SE OF LINE 08N78W TO 
00N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N111W TO 07N122W TO 08N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE STATIONARY NEAR 03N142W HAS A RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO 15N130W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 136W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 17N143W HAS ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW 
EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA FROM 17N TO 25N W OF 134W. 

A SERIES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONES DOMINATE THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 
114W RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE AREA CRESTING ALONG 
POINTS 20N111W 23N97W 27N83W. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 
32N100W TO 23N110W 15N122W THEN S TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
02S117W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF 12N BETWEEN 135W AND 115W 
AND CONTINUING E ACROSS OLD MEXICO N OF 22N.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 102W AND 117W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
IS SPREADING N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 07N114W TO 18N105W...TURNING 
NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINING S 
OF 26N.
   
AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N135W TO 
14N97W. N AND NW SWELLS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE MERGING WITH W AND SW SWELLS CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR AND CONTINUING NE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN OPEN 
NNW TO SSE FETCH. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH LESS THAN 20 KT TUE 
AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM THE GAP 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT TUE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING BUT STILL 
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT TO SHIFT TO THE N EARLY TUE 
MORNING INCREASING TO A GALE TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE JUST AFTER SUNRISE WED.
 
$$
NELSON