000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N78W TO 4N90W TO 6N119W TO 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SW OF LINE FROM 7N78W 
TO THE EQUATOR AT 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N111W TO 8N123W TO 6N135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE STATIONARY NEAR 4N141W HAS A RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO 17N129W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 122W AND 135W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 18N144W HAS ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW 
EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA NEAR 25N135W. 

A SERIES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONES DOMINATE THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 
115W RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE AREA CRESTING ALONG 
POINTS 21N110W 26N90W 23N70W. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGH ALONG 32N103W TO 
23N113W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE EQUATOR AT 118W. DRY UPPER 
AIR IS NOTED N OF 12N BETWEEN 135W AND 116W AND CONTINUING E 
ACROSS OLD MEXICO N OF 20N.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 118W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
IS SPREADING N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N115W TO 16N107W...TURNING NE 
ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N.
   
AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N135W TO 
14N97W. N AND NW SWELLS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE MERGING WITH W AND SW SWELLS CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE N GULF ARE EXPECTED 
TO MAX AT 30 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CONDITIONS SPREADING S 
COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF MON AFTERNOON WITHS SEAS TO MAX AT 9 FT 
IN AREAS OF FETCH. CONDITIONS DIMINISH TUE.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM THE GAP 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT TUE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING BUT STILL 
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT TO SHIFT TO THE N AT MID 
MORNING TUE INCREASING TO A GALE TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE JUST AFTER SUNRISE WED.
 
$$
NELSON