000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031619
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...7N78W  4N90W  6N118W  6N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N126W TO 20N140W USHERS 
MOISTURE ADVECTION W OF AXIS BUT REMAINING AREA N OF 15NW OF 
115W REMAINS VERY DRY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
WEAK AND MINUTE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SQUEEZED W OF AXIS AND BETWEEN 
NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N105W TO 10N118W.  

ANTICYCLONE CENTER WHICH WAS RETREATING E HAS NOW STOPPED AT 
8N92W AND HOLDING ITS GROUND FORCING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO SHIFT NE 
AND PASS N OF 25N.  RIDGE ADVECTING TRPCL MOISTURE FROM S OF 
EQUATOR INTO SRN HALF OF MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO WELL AHEAD OF 
COLD FRONT COMING OUT OF TEXAS TONIGHT. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1033 MB AT 36N134W HAS SURFACE RIDGE RESTRAIN ANY 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT N OF 15N W OF 115W.  NW WINDS OVER GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO E WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN 36 HRS AS 
CARIBBEAN RIDGE SHIFT FURTHER E.  GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT 
PUSHES N WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 36 HRS FOR A 
SHORT LIVED EVENT...SHOULD BE OVER SHORTLY AFTER END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES