000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W TO 1N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E 
OF 85W...AND BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...AND BETWEEN 113W AND 119W 
AND W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 4N140W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 138W TO BEYOND 32N137W. UPPER MOISTURE 
IS SPILLING E ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS EVAPORATING ALONG 134W.

A SERIES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONES DOMINATE THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 
100W RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE AREA CRESTING OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W. SEPARATING THESE AREAS OF UPPER 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LIES AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 32N106W 18N120W TO 
AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 1N114W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF 12N 
BETWEEN 135W AND 115W AND CONTINUING E ACROSS OLD MEXICO N OF
25N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CYCLONE AND ALONG THE W PERIPHERY 
OF THE TROPICAL RIDGE COMBINED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION EARLIER 
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N114W 
18N106W...TURNING NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND SOMEWHAT 
EVAPORATING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN CONCENTRATING INTO A 
NARROW PLUME THAT CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO BEYOND BERMUDA. 
   
AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N132W TO 
15N105W. N AND NW SWELLS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE MERGING WITH W AND SW SWELLS CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE N GULF ARE EXPECTED 
TO MAX AT 30 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CONDITIONS SPREADING S 
COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF MON AFTERNOON WITHS SEAS TO MAX AT 9 FT 
IN AREAS OF FETCH. CONDITIONS DIMINISH TUE.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E 20 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM THE GAP WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT LATE MON AND CONTINUE TO 
SURGE AT 15 TO 20 KT FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND MON WILL 
SHIFT TO THE N MID MORNING TUE INCREASING TO A STRONG GALE TUE 
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING WED BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MAX WINDS AT 
45 KT AND NO HINT OF STORM FORCE.  

$$
NELSON