000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N77W 4N96W 7N127W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...AND WITHIN 480 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS 
AT 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 3N137W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING N ALONG 138W TO BEYOND 32N138W. UPPER MOISTURE IS 
SPILLING E ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS EVAPORATING ALONG 136W.

A SERIES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONES DOMINATE THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 
100W RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE AREA CRESTING OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N95W. BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF UPPER 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LIES AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 32N107W 21N117W TO 
AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 1N115W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF 12N 
BETWEEN 135W AND 115W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CYCLONE AND 
ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS COMBINING TO 
ENHANCE CONVECTION S OF 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 124W. THE RESULTANT 
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N116W 
18N106W...TURNING E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND SOMEWHAT 
EVAPORATING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN CONCENTRATING 
INTO A NARROW PLUME THAT CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BEYOND. 
   
AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 33N134W TO 
13N98W. N AND NW SWELLS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL 
CONTINUE S MERGING WITH W AND SW SWELLS CROSSING THE EQUATOR.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE N GULF AT THE 
MOMENT AND ARE EXPECTED TO MAX AT 30 KT TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS 
SPREADING S COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF MON AFTERNOON WITHS SEAS TO 
MAX AT 9 FT IN AREAS OF FETCH. CONDITIONS DIMINISH TUE.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM THE GAP  
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT LATE MON AND THEN SURGE 
AT 15 TO 20 KT FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT DOWNSTREAM TO ABOUT 5N 
EXPECTED DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS IN THE 15 KT RANGE ARE STILL 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 KT TONIGHT AND 
MON. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIDGE THE GAP MID MORNING TUE 
INCREASING TO A STRONG GALE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 
MID MORNING WED BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE. LATEST MODEL RUNS 
SUGGEST MAX WINDS AT 40 KT AND NO HINT OF STORM FORCE.  

$$
NELSON