000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N77W 4N100W 7N126W 6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 99W TO 104W AND FROM 132W TO 135W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 135W HAS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
W OF 127W ADVECTING PLENTY OF TRPCL MOISTURE W OF AXIS BUT 
REMAINS DRY ON E SIDE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  
DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SW UNITED STATES/ NW  
MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 12N121W.  DRYNESS 
EXTENDS E TO ITS AXIS.  

WRN EXTENSION OF BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING CARIBBEAN BASIN AND E 
PAC E OF TROUGH AXIS RETREATING E FORCED BY TROUGH.  GFS 
SOLUTION PREDICTED THIS RETREAT AND THEN HELD RIDGE COVERAGE E 
OF 90W BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS MEANS THAT TROUGH WILL 
SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN MOVING ALONG CREST OF RIDGE.  ZONAL WINDS 
SHOULD REMAIN N OF 20N E OF 100W BY END OF PERIOD. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB WELL N OF AREA HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND DEEP INTO TROPICS WITH STRONG NE TRADES THROUGH TUE 
AND ALONG BOTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  GAP WINDS ACROSS GULFS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUE.  

$$
WALLY BARNES