000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 4N91W 6N120W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 4N BETWEEN 97W AND 104W AND FROM 
8N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 121W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 6N125W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 2N140W WITH RIDGE N ALONG 139W 
CRESTING NEAR 37N138W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPILLING E ACROSS THE 
RIDGE AXIS TO ALONG 137W.

A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N102W WITH A RIDGE N ALONG 
11N105W CRESTING OVER OLD MEXICO ALONG 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 98W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 111W AND 
120W...WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING N ALONG THE 
W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH SOME SPILLING E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD 
MEXICO FROM 18N TO 25N. A THIRD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED 
NEAR 1N89W AND A FOURTH IS WELL E OF THE AREA NEAR 5N58W. 
ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGES EXTEND W ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
RESULTING IN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 22N E OF 100W. 
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 4N100W IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NE 
IN THIS UPPER FLOW. 

BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGES DESCRIBED ABOVE LIES AN UPPER TROUGH 
ALONG 32N111W 25N123W 10N119W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR N OF 
10N BETWEEN 136W AND 118W.  
   
AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N135W TO 
15N105W. NW SWELLS ARE NOTED OVER THE AREA N OF 5N W OF 105W 
WITH SW SWELLS ELSEWHERE. 
 
GAP WINDS...E 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT IN 48 HOURS. 

NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY SUN TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA SUN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT 
THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF BY SUNSET MON.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO SURGE AT 
20 TO 25 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE SUN THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 
KT MON. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIDGE THE GAP MID MORNING 
TUE INCREASING TO A STRONG GALE TUE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A 
MINIMAL STORM TUE NIGHT. 

$$
NELSON