000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011635
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ ALONG 9N79W 4N97W 6N120W 5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
60 NM S OF LINE FROM 95W TO 126W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 
NM OF LINE FROM 7N105W TO 11N122W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTERS E PAC WITH AXIS ALONG 138W 
WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING IT N OF 10N W OF AXIS.  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM 32N115W TO 9N124W.  VERY DRY 
AIR MASS ELSEWHERE W OF TROUGH AXIS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  

PREVIOUSLY WELL-ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 12N103W 
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO RETREAT E FORCED BY TROUGH BUT WILL 
MAKE A STAND ALONG 90W AS TROUGH SHIFT NE FLATTENING ITS CREST 
INTO ZONAL FLOW N OF 20N. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY FROM 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 5N106W...UNDERCUTTING ANTICYCLONE...WILL BE 
FORCED OUT OF E PAC BY RETREATING RIDGE.  FURTHER E...BROAD ATLC 
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CARIBBEAN INTO E PAC E OF 86W FORECAST 
TO HOLD ITS GROUND THROUGH PERIOD. ONLY SOURCE OF TRPCL MOISTURE
...MOSTLY FROM ITCZ DEBRIS...IS TRAPPED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE AND 
WESTERNMOST UPPER TROUGH BEING ADVECTED N AND NE INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO.   
   
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB AT 34N137W WITH RIDGE 
EXTEND TO 15N110W DRIFTING NE.  RIDGE MAINTAIN STRONG NE TRADES 
FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W THEN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AGAINST 
CALIFORNIA COAST INCREASING N-NW WINDS ALONG BAJA COAST.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AS RIDGE ACROSS 
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE ON TRADE WINDS.  GULF OF 
PANAMA WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITHIN 12 HRS AS LOW PRES OVER 
COLOMBIA LOOSENS ITS POWER WITH INTENSIFYING RIDGE.  GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES