000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS ALONG 7N78W 8N87W 7N100W 9N118W 7N129W 7N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 1N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7N103W TO 10N114W TO 
7N130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE PHASED TOGETHER TONIGHT ALONG A LINE 
FROM 32N120W TO 20N130W. TWO CENTERS OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC 
ROTATION..ONE NEAR 33N120W AND THE OTHER NEAR 24N127W. A MID 
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE TROUGH FROM A CENTER NEAR 
22N138W TO 32N130W. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 120W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 
A 1025 MB HIGH ANCHORS THE PACIFIC RIDGE NEAR 28N138W. THE RIDGE 
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 20N W OF 130W. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO 
BLOW TONIGHT WITH SSMI SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC 
AND WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH PAPAGAYO TO 9N95W. GULF OF PANAMA 
ALSO HAS SOME WINDS OF 20 KT ACCORDING TO THE SSMI IMAGERY. 
QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT IMAGERY CONFIRM THE PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WINDS.

LATER DAY 1 THE DUAL CENTERED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE SLOWLY SE ALONG A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 20N126W. MID LEVEL 
RIDGING WILL COVER THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W 
WITH A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
WITH A 1026 MB CENTER THUS NE TRADES S OF 20N W OF 120W WILL 
CONTINUE ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. BAJA 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. GAP WINDS REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA WHILE TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT.

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY 
EWD TO ALONG 115W WITH THE SRN CENTER OF CYCLONIC ROTATION 
DISSIPATING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER DRIFTS E TO NEAR 
24N134W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME 
THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER ALOFT OVER THE AREA. NE 
TRADES EXPAND TO THE AREA S OF 25N W OF 120W WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
TO SEAS. BAJA WINDS REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS DECREASE SOME 
TO MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGH PRES WEAKENING OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. 

$$
RRG