000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ-RELATED AXIS CENTERED ALONG 05N78W 02N90W 02N100W 05N110W 
06N120W 05N130W 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 135W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N111W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM 32N134W TO 22N140W DIGS SE ACROSS WRN
E PAC BUT BEING BLOCKED S OF 20N BY PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WELL ANCHORED AT 7N124W.  S-SW WIND FLOW TOPPING 85W 
ADVECTING TRPCL MOISTURE FURTHER N INTO MID SECTION OF E PAC 
WHERE 1027 SURFACE HIGH PRES MAINTAINS TIGHT LID ON ANY 
CONVECTION TRYING TO SURVIVE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT DENTS 
RIDGE N OF 23N ALONG 120W BUT E MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE  
AND DRY AIR MASS CONTAINS CLOUDINESS TO ONLY LOW LEVELS. 

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN NW E 
PAC...FROM 32N133W TO 27N140W...BARELY HAS POWER FOR SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM ALONG ITS AXIS AND APPEARS 
DOOMED UPON CLASHING WITH UNMOVABLE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...S OF 23N.
MODELS SHOW WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH 
LACK OF MOISTURE TO GET ANYTHING STARTED.  ONLY SURFACE WINDS 
ALONG BAJA COASTS DIMINISH AS SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS WITH PASS OF 
TROUGH.  ELSEWHERE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE UNDER BROAD UPPER 
RIDGING S OF 9N FROM 90W-120W.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES MENTIONED ABOVE HAS RIDGE STRETCH SE 
N OF 15N W OF 115W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING APPEARS ON VERGE OF VERIFYING 
AS QUIKSCAT AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE STRONG GALE AND IT IS YET 
TO PEAK.  MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS WINDS TO INCREASE TO STORM 
FORCE IN ABOUT 6 HRS...AND LAST THROUGH THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO 
GALE FORCE AGAIN FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS SHOULD ONLY LAST 12 MORE HOURS 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  GULF OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
INCREASING AS CARIBBEAN RIDGE PRESSES AGAINST 1007 MB LOW PRES 
CENTER OVER COLOMBIA.

$$
WALLY BARNES