000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271624
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ-RELATED AXIS CENTERED ALONG 05N77W TO 02N86W TO 04N100W TO
06M110W TO 10N120 TO 08N131W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 138W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N110.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ALONG 
THE W BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY 
ALONG 32N138W SW TO A NEWLY FORMED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 
28N136W...AND CONTINUES SW TO OUT OF THE AREA AT 24N140W. THE
TROUGH IS FOLLOWED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. THE ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE FRONT HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N136W 
TO 27N140W...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD IS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM E 
OF THE TROUGH. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM 22N128W NE THROUGH 26N126W TO OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 
32N123W TO WELL ACROSS THE WRN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO SLIDE EWD THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ALLOWING THE 
TROUGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N.

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING E ABOUT 10-15 
KT IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE NEAR 29N120W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING 
S TO 17N121W. WEAK/MID LEVEL RIDGING IS IDENTIFIED E OF THE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 13N109W AND NNW THROUGH 19N111W TO OVER 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
    
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N TO THE E OF
107W...INCLUDING NRN MEXICO. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS 
PRESENT TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W TO INCLUDE CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WATERS. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK 
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THOSE AREAS.

MODERATE SUBSIDENCE UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS OCCURRING S OF
9N BETWEEN 90W-120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH ANALYZED NEAR 32N128.5W IS MOVING
W 10 KT WITH A RIDGE SE TO 19N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N 
OF 15N AND W OF 115W. PRES ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD TROUGHING 
PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY.

GAP WINDS...A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC 
THIS MORNING REVEALED THE ONSET OF GALE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 
30-45 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE 
FORECASTS THESE WINDS TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE IN ABOUT 6 
HRS...AND LAST THROUGH THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN 
FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS 
N OF 26N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12 HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...SAME QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS 
MORNING ALSO SHOWED N-NE 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP 30 KT WITH 
POSSIBLE HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN 48 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE